Obesity in America: By 2030, Over Half In the US will be OBESE

Obesity in America: By 2030, Over Half In the US will be OBESE

January 7, 2020 18 By Ewald Bahringer


So one of the headlines for December
2019 is that within a decade, half of the country will be obese. 1 in 4 will
be morbidly obese, as in BMI over 35. Do you believe that? Well, it was in the New
England Journal of Medicine. We’ll talk about in just a minute. But first, let’s
go back and talk about some of our previous discussions about diet. In my mind, I’ve always said the biggest
dietary mistakes really aren’t what macronutrient in my low-carb, low-fat,
high-fat, plant-based vs. animal-based. In fact, I talked about some really weird
diets. Penn Jillette losing a hundred pounds on a potato mono diet. Yes, I got
grief for it. But my bottom line was you know when I focus on all of these
different simple or maybe complicated techniques for dieting, maybe we’re
fiddling while Rome burns. How did I come up with them? I told you it’s my
experience as a doc treating thousands of patients and teaching thousands of
docs how to do prevention. Now, mistake number one is not knowing that you have
insulin resistance prediabetes, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, and
therefore that you can’t metabolize carbs. Well, went into some detail on that.
But mistake number two was too much focus on diet, carb, keto, paleo, 5-2, clean
diet, etc., etc., and not enough focus on BMI or fat mass. A viewer asked me recently
why are you so focused on weight and not fat mass. I’m focused on fat mass. We used
to think that was an inert storage tissue. It’s not. Fat releases enzymes.
It’s a hormonal tissue. So the New England Journal article is in December
of 2019, obesity trends, Ward and associates. Again, here’s the headline. “Half of US
adults to be obese by 2030 with over one in four and severely obese.” Here’s the
actual article itself. December 19th 2019. Projected US
state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity special
article. Yeah, it’s a special article. Isn’t this one thing is driving more
health problems in our country than anything perhaps the exception of aging?
So is the New England Journal it’s got to be right, right? Well, I think their
techniques were a hundred percent spot-on as they
usually are. However, I don’t entirely believe this, and I’ll tell you
why at the end. So here’s the estimated prevalence. This is
a BMI of 30 or greater on the left hand side. And as you see, well, red is when
they get up to 30 percent, and blue is up over 50 percent nationwide. Over 50
percent, the green over here. See a green supposed to sound good, but green
actually in this series of images is a BMI of 30 or greater or 35 less than
35. So I don’t think that really deserves a grain in terms of image. But again,
that’s a bunch of silliness and opinions. Here’s the problem. You get up to yellow
and orange and over 1 & 4 at that point has a BMI of greater than 35 -morbidly
obese. Here’s another way of looking at it. Again, overall, this is a BMI. In this
beige area, the BMI is 25 or less. In the orange is overweight 25 to 30. So again,
over half of our folks are going to have a BMI of up to 30. This is 50 percent
prevalence here, and it just cuts straight on up through you. See here
breakdown by male- female gender, race or ethnic group, household income, and again
a bunch of bad news. You can look it up, and say, okay, what state do you live in? I
live in Lexington, Kentucky, so prevalence among women is 54… 55;
percent among men 55 percent BMI equal equal to or greater than 34. BMI equal to
or greater than 35, it’s 23 and 30… 23 percent in men and 33 percent in women. A
third of women in Kentucky, morbidly obese. Now I said I don’t really believe
that. Why? Why wouldn’t I believe that? And wait a minute, how did they do this
anyway? How did they develop these numbers? They looked at the behavioral
risk factor surveillance people do in terms of their risk factors
and behaviors. And in NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Survey), they looked
at data since early 90s. NHANES since 1990 and the Behavioral Risk
Factor since 1993. They use statistical methods to adjust and correct bias. So
again, what do I think? I’m an optimist. I think we’re gonna bend the curve. How do
I think we’re gonna do that? That’s for another video. Thank you for your
interest. If you missed the Louisville event, that’s bad news. It’s especially
bad news because it was a great event. We had 50% more people than I’ve seen at
these type of events. And here’s the big thing. We had 3 senior patients, folks
that have worked with us for a year or two – Chuck, Gene, and Mark Bentley. Now,
these individuals got up and shared their experiences as a patient and
demonstrated that, yes, they’ve had challenges and here’s how they worked
through them successfully. As they began to present, things changed in terms of
the tenor and in the room. It was because folks became very emotionally
engaged and began to realize that you don’t have to be a doctor to understand
all this stuff. You don’t have to be a doctor to be a successful patient and
prevent your own heart attack, stroke. So here’s the good news. Though if you
missed that one, we’ve got another one we’ve got one coming up February 28th in
Orlando. So take a look, and come see us. Look forward to it.